HITBrier 0.146

Early-confirmed: TGT, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-01 through 2026-10-31. Target: below 151.99. Target hit on: 2026-10-07. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Market

SHORTTGT

Target (TGT) will close at least 3% below its October 1 price on at least one trading day by October 31, 2026 (target below $151.99, 3% from $156.69 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-01 at 62% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-08. Brier score 0.146.

Derived from: the risk-off thesis and the Fed game's hawkish-hold outcome, a potential headwind for consumer-discretionary shares.

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 31in 17d
Made: Oct 1

Price Target$151.99

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Target Corp (TGT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $148.04, 5% from $155.83 at creation)

market41%MISS

Target Corp (TGT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $157.86, 4% from $164.44 at creation)

market43%HIT

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Target (TGT) will close at least 3% below its October 1 price on at least one trading day by October 31, 2026 (target below $151.99, 3% from $156.69 at creation)

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