Bitcoin will trade below $60,000 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as wartime regime risk-off flows accelerate crypto deleveraging beyond current institutional support levels

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-11 at 10% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-25. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: wartime regime designation, 80% escalation risk score, and risk-off market conditions (F&G: 38) creating institutional portfolio rebalancing pressure away from risk assets. Bitcoin typically underperforms during geopolitical stress as liquidity preference shifts to traditional safe havens. Current BTC level unknown but crypto generally faces selling pressure in wartime regimes.

Probability

10%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

May 25127d ago

Made

May 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.