Bitcoin will close below $60,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as risk-off positioning accelerates during convergence density increase toward Erev Pesach

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 75% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.563.

Derived from: Convergence density rising from 5.3/10 toward 7.0/10 by March 31 (existing prediction #70) and Fear/Greed index at 30 indicating defensive positioning in risk assets

Probability

75%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 8174d ago

Made

Mar 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.