HITBrier 0.078

Data-resolved: BTC moved from 68432.17 to 71128.28 (3.94%) during 2026-03-09 to 2026-03-16. Target: above 72000. Target hit on: 2026-03-15, 2026-03-16.

Resolved Mar 18, 2026

Market

LONG correctBTC

Bitcoin (BTC) will close above $72,000 on at least 1 trading day within 7 days as risk-on regime classification drives cryptocurrency outperformance despite geopolitical backdrop

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-18. Brier score 0.078.

Derived from: Risk-on regime classification at 87% confidence, Fear/Greed index at 30 creating contrarian setup for risk assets including crypto

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 16197d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$72,000

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin will close below $60,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as risk-off positioning accelerates during convergence density increase toward Erev Pesach

market75%MISS

Bitcoin will trade below $55,000 on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as geopolitical risk-off conditions combine with small-cap stress (IWM volatility ATR 5.74) to trigger crypto correlation breakdown

market12%PARTIAL

Bitcoin will trade below $60,000 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as wartime regime risk-off flows accelerate crypto deleveraging beyond current institutional support levels

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Bitcoin (BTC) will close above $72,000 on at least 1 trading day within 7 days as risk-on regime classification drives cryptocurrency outperformance despite geopolitical backdrop

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