Bitcoin will trade below $55,000 on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as geopolitical risk-off conditions combine with small-cap stress (IWM volatility ATR 5.74) to trigger crypto correlation breakdown
NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-26 at 12% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-26. Brier score 0.014.
Derived from: Wartime regime creating risk-off conditions, IWM high volatility (ATR 5.74) signaling small-cap stress that historically correlates with crypto selloffs, Fear and Greed at 38 (fear zone), and day_count/market reference class 44% hit rate supporting moderate confidence level
- Probability
- 12%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- May 26126d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.