PARTIALBrier 0.014

Data-resolved: BTC moved from 78047.31 to 77270.93 (-0.99%) during 2026-04-26 to 2026-05-26. Target: below 55000. Target not reached. Low was 74197.11.

Resolved May 26, 2026

Market

SHORT correctBTC

Bitcoin will trade below $55,000 on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as geopolitical risk-off conditions combine with small-cap stress (IWM volatility ATR 5.74) to trigger crypto correlation breakdown

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-26 at 12% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-26. Brier score 0.014.

Derived from: Wartime regime creating risk-off conditions, IWM high volatility (ATR 5.74) signaling small-cap stress that historically correlates with crypto selloffs, Fear and Greed at 38 (fear zone), and day_count/market reference class 44% hit rate supporting moderate confidence level

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: May 26126d ago
Made: Apr 26

Price Target$55,000

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin will trade below $60,000 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as wartime regime risk-off flows accelerate crypto deleveraging beyond current institutional support levels

market10%PARTIAL

Bitcoin will close below $60,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as risk-off positioning accelerates during convergence density increase toward Erev Pesach

market75%MISS

Bitcoin (BTC) will close above $72,000 on at least 1 trading day within 7 days as risk-on regime classification drives cryptocurrency outperformance despite geopolitical backdrop

market72%

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Bitcoin will trade below $55,000 on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as geopolitical risk-off conditions combine with small-cap stress (IWM volatility ATR 5.74) to trigger crypto correlation breakdown

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