MISSBrier 0.029

Data-resolved: HYG moved from 79.52 to 79.71 (0.24%) during 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-20. Target: below 75. Target not reached. Low was 79.41.

Resolved Aug 20, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongHYG

High-yield bond ETF HYG will close below $75.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-06 at 17% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-20. Brier score 0.029.

Derived from: confirmed risk-off market regime (Fear & Greed 38), 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score, and deeply negative equity momentum (SPY/QQQ MACD histograms), implying credit-spread widening pressure on high-yield debt.

Probability: 17%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 2040d ago
Made: Aug 6

Price Target$75

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

High-yield credit ETF HYG will close below $77.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds against the backdrop of the 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score.

market44%MISS

HYG will close below $77.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market29%MISS

HYG will close above $80.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market48%MISS

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High-yield bond ETF HYG will close below $75.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds.

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