UAL will close at least 3% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 14, 2026 (target below $101.11, 3% from $104.24 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-31 at 55% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-14.

Derived from: the oil-risk trading action, the Bayesian Strait of Hormuz assessment's 67% escalation probability, and the wartime backdrop. Confidence is low because neither a chokepoint closure nor a fresh oil supply shock is established.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 14in 14d
Made: Oct 31

Price Target$101.11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UAL will close at least 3% below its October 12, 2026 price on at least one trading day by November 11, 2026 (target below $104.24, 3% from $107.46 at creation)

market63%HIT

United Airlines (UAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $108.67, 5% from $114.39 at creation)

market78%MISS

United Airlines (UAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.81, 5% from $111.38 at creation)

market41%MISS

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Track Record

Market

SHORTUALPending

UAL will close at least 3% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 14, 2026 (target below $101.11, 3% from $104.24 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-31 at 55% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-14.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 14in 14d
Made: Oct 31

Price Target$101.11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UAL will close at least 3% below its October 12, 2026 price on at least one trading day by November 11, 2026 (target below $104.24, 3% from $107.46 at creation)

market63%HIT

United Airlines (UAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $108.67, 5% from $114.39 at creation)

market78%MISS

United Airlines (UAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.81, 5% from $111.38 at creation)

market41%MISS

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

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Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

UAL will close at least 3% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 14, 2026 (target below $101.11, 3% from $104.24 at creation)

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See the full intelligence picture

UAL will close at least 3% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 14, 2026 (target below $101.11, 3% from $104.24 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture