HITBrier 0.094

Early-confirmed: EWJ, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-07 through 2026-11-06. Target: below 97.83. Target hit on: 2026-10-08. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Market

SHORTEWJ

EWJ will close at least 1.5% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 6, 2026 (target below $97.83, 1.5% from $99.32 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-07 at 69% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-09. Brier score 0.094.

Derived from: the Bayesian Taiwan Strait assessment's 53% escalation probability and fragile gray-zone equilibrium. No direct disruption to Japan is established.

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 6in 23d
Made: Oct 7

Price Target$97.83

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Japan equity ETF EWJ will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $94.04, 4% from $97.96 at creation)

market49%MISS

EWJ (Japan equity ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.33, 3% from $98.28 at creation)

market36%MISS

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EWJ will close at least 1.5% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 6, 2026 (target below $97.83, 1.5% from $99.32 at creation)

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