MISSBrier 0.015

Web search from March 19 to April 2, 2026 found no announcements of capital controls or FX intervention by Thailand. Search results included general financial articles but no evidence of the predicted policy announcements. Actual announcements: 0, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Geopolitical

Thailand will announce capital flow restrictions or foreign exchange intervention measures within 14 days as regional financial stability concerns mount from Strait of Malacca chokepoint risk

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 12% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.015.

Derived from: Thailand's export-dependent economy vulnerable to shipping disruption scenarios across multiple Bayesian models. Thai Baht weakness historically triggers policy intervention. Mars-Saturn Conjunction (April 14) coincides with Day of the Sun, creating policy announcement window. Lower confidence reflects Red Team criticism of signal oversaturation, but chokepoint vulnerability is fundamental.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Thailand will announce capital flow restrictions or foreign exchange intervention measures within 14 days as regional financial stability concerns mount from Strait of Malacca chokepoint risk

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