Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.122.

Grounded in the US Treasury Supply Crisis fragile equilibrium (higher term premium demand) and Fed Rate Cycle hawkish-hold uncertainty, both of which pressure bank balance sheets holding long-duration assets; financials/bonds are explicitly named key sectors in the Treasury Supply Crisis scenario.

Probability

35%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 227d ago

Made

Sep 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.