MISSBrier 0.107

Data-resolved: C moved from 137.72 to 131.77 (-4.32%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 130.83. Target not reached. Low was 130.31.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctC

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.107.

US Treasury Supply Crisis Bayesian equilibrium (higher term premium demand) plus hawkish-hold Fed guidance pressures bank net interest margins and credit-sensitive financials amid wartime risk-off equity conditions (Fear & Greed 38).

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$130.83

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

market20%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

market33%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

market35%

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Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

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