MISSBrier 0.142

Data-resolved: C moved from 136.74 to 135.05 (-1.24%) during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-22. Target: below 131.27. Target not reached. Low was 130.31.

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

SHORT correctC

Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.27, 4% from $136.74 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.142.

Wartime risk-off regime and Bayesian Fed hawkish-hold equilibrium (zero stable equilibria) pressure money-center bank valuations; Citigroup is uncovered by existing pending bank-sector predictions (JPM, BAC, GS, MS, WFC), offering a distinct single-stock angle on financial-sector stress.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$131.27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

market35%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.99, 5% from $137.88 at creation)

market33%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

market33%

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Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.27, 4% from $136.74 at creation)

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