MISSBrier 0.108

Data-resolved: C moved from 137.88 to 132.50 (-3.90%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: below 130.99. Target not reached. Low was 130.31.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

SHORT correctC

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.99, 5% from $137.88 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.108.

Risk-off regime confirmed (Fear & Greed 38), 80% overall geopolitical escalation score, and Taiwan/US-China Fearon bargaining failure conditions create financial-sector drawdown risk not yet reflected in bank equities.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$130.99

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.27, 4% from $136.74 at creation)

market38%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $144.69, 5% from $137.80 at creation)

market34%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

market35%

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Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.99, 5% from $137.88 at creation)

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