HITBrier 0.381

Early-confirmed: C hit target below 132.96 on 2026-09-16. Current price: 132.70 (started at 138.50).

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Market

SHORT correctC

Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $132.96, 4% from $138.50 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 38% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.381.

Risk-off regime confirmation (Fear & Greed 38, deeply negative MACD histograms on SPY/QQQ) combined with the Bayesian Fed equilibrium favoring a hawkish hold rather than cuts, pressuring bank net-interest-margin optimism and credit-sensitive financials into the September meeting.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$132.96

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $144.69, 5% from $137.80 at creation)

market34%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.88, 5% from $138.82 at creation)

market34%HIT

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.99, 5% from $137.88 at creation)

market33%

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Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $132.96, 4% from $138.50 at creation)

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