Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.88, 5% from $138.82 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 34% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-19. Brier score 0.442.

Wartime risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption) combined with credit-stress signals in high-yield markets argues for financial-sector vulnerability; Citigroup's international/EM exposure makes it a distinct proxy for cross-border risk-off contagion not yet covered by existing XLF predictions.

Probability

34%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.