HITBrier 0.423

Early-confirmed: C hit target below 131.88 on 2026-09-18. Current price: 131.77 (started at 138.82).

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Market

SHORT correctC

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.88, 5% from $138.82 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 35% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-19. Brier score 0.423.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot (bearish, hawkish-hold guidance) combined with the wartime risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, deeply negative SPY/QQQ MACD) pressures rate-sensitive financials; Citigroup is an uncovered single-name proxy for broad money-center bank stress.

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Price Target$131.88

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.88, 5% from $138.82 at creation)

market34%HIT

Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.73, 4% from $136.18 at creation)

market76%

Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $132.96, 4% from $138.50 at creation)

market38%HIT

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Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.88, 5% from $138.82 at creation)

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