MISSBrier 0.112

Data-resolved: C moved from 137.80 to 131.93 (-4.26%) during 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24. Target: above 144.69. Target not reached. High was 141.27.

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

LONG wrongC

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $144.69, 5% from $137.80 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.112.

A hawkish Fed hold (Bayesian equilibrium, bearish-for-duration/bullish-for-bank-margins) historically supports net interest margin expansion for large money-center banks, an uncovered single-stock angle distinct from prior JPM/BAC/GS/WFC/MS predictions.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$144.69

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $132.96, 4% from $138.50 at creation)

market38%HIT

Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $130.99, 5% from $137.88 at creation)

market33%MISS

Citigroup (C) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $131.27, 4% from $136.74 at creation)

market38%

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Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $144.69, 5% from $137.80 at creation)

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