Citigroup (C) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $130.83, 5% from $137.72 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 20% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.038.

Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium (hawkish hold, bearish 55% confidence) combined with credit-stress signals (HYG monitored, wartime risk-off) pressures bank net-interest-margin and credit-quality expectations for money-center banks exposed to global counterparty risk from Hormuz/Taiwan disruption.

Probability

20%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 1415d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.