MISSBrier 0.188

Web search for Netherlands emergency energy measures or strategic reserve activation during March 11-25, 2026 returned no results. No evidence found of any emergency energy announcements or reserve activations during the prediction window. Required: at least 1 announcement. Actual: 0 announcements found. 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Geopolitical

Netherlands government will announce at least one emergency energy measure or strategic reserve activation within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 43% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.188.

Derived from: Active Hormuz closure creates immediate European energy security crisis. Netherlands as major gas trading hub faces acute supply rerouting needs. Bayesian analysis shows European Energy Security game has 50% bargaining range but immediate tactical responses required. Base rate for G7 energy measures: 30% per month, elevated by active supply disruption

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Netherlands government will announce at least one emergency energy measure or strategic reserve activation within 14 days

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