HITBrier 0.239

Early-confirmed: SBUX, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-02 through 2026-11-01. Target: below 91.08. Target hit on: 2026-10-09. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Market

SHORTSBUX

SBUX will close at least 4% below its October 2, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 1, 2026 (target below $91.08, 4% from $94.88 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-02 at 51% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-10. Brier score 0.239.

The active risk-off thesis provides the directional basis for testing discretionary-consumer weakness. No company-specific adverse signal is supplied, limiting confidence.

Probability: 51%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 1in 19d
Made: Oct 2

Price Target$91.08

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $93.80, 5% from $98.74 at creation)

market43%HIT

Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $100.29, 4% from $104.47 at creation)

market28%HIT

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SBUX will close at least 4% below its October 2, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 1, 2026 (target below $91.08, 4% from $94.88 at creation)

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