COST will close at least 2% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 12, 2026 (target above $978.63, 2% from $959.44 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-13 at 71% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-12.

Derived from: the thesis's risk-off regime, which supports a defensive-consumer relative-value case; the red-team challenge that risk-off is not yet corroborated by volatility or credit signals limits confidence.

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 12in 30d
Made: Oct 13

Price Target$978.63

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Costco (COST) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as defensive consumer-staples rotation continues amid confirmed risk-off equity conditions (target above $934.42, 4% from $898.48 at creation)

market84%HIT

Costco (COST) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $943.21, 3% from $915.74 at creation)

market49%MISS

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COST will close at least 2% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 12, 2026 (target above $978.63, 2% from $959.44 at creation)

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