PARTIALBrier 0.010

Data-resolved: HYG moved from 79.17 to 80.37 (1.52%) during 2026-03-25 to 2026-04-24. Target: above 400. Target not reached. High was 80.76.

Resolved Apr 24, 2026

Market

LONG correctHYG

The High Yield Credit Spread (HYG vs Treasury) will widen above 400 basis points within 30 days as wartime regime with neutral market sentiment creates credit repricing lag that must eventually correct

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-25 at 10% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Current regime is wartime with 80% geopolitical escalation risk, yet Fear/Greed index shows neutral 50 sentiment. This 'dangerous divergence between complacent pricing and deteriorating strategic conditions' must eventually manifest in credit markets as risk premiums adjust to regime reality

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 24158d ago
Made: Mar 25

Price Target$400

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

High-yield bond ETF HYG will close below $75.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds.

market17%MISS

High-yield credit ETF HYG will close below $77.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds against the backdrop of the 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score.

market44%MISS

HYG will close below $77.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market29%MISS

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The High Yield Credit Spread (HYG vs Treasury) will widen above 400 basis points within 30 days as wartime regime with neutral market sentiment creates credit repricing lag that must eventually correct

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