MISSBrier 0.075

No evidence found of Lebanon implementing capital controls or announcing major banking restrictions between March 19-26, 2026. Web search yielded no relevant results within the evidence window. The prediction required at least one such implementation or announcement within 7 days, but none occurred.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Geopolitical

Lebanon will implement capital controls or announce major banking restrictions within 7 days as regional escalation pressures financial system stability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 27% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.075.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) indicates structural instability. Lebanon's banking system already fragile, and regional escalation probability at 20% could trigger defensive financial measures. Vernal Equinox convergence adds timing catalyst.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Lebanon will implement capital controls or announce major banking restrictions within 7 days as regional escalation pressures financial system stability

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