HITBrier 0.150

Early-confirmed: USDMXN, touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-02 through 2026-10-16. Target: above 18.43. Target hit on: 2026-10-09. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Market

LONGUSDMXN

USD/MXN will trade above 18.43 by October 16, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-02 at 61% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-10. Brier score 0.150.

The active thesis identifies a risk-off regime and elevated volatility, a directional basis for a higher USD/MXN rate. The supplied reference rate is 18.26.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 16in 3d
Made: Oct 2

Price Target$18.43

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as NAFTA trade vulnerabilities and risk-off dollar strength create emerging market currency pressure

market58%MISS

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will strengthen below 17.50 within 14 days as risk-off dollar flows compete with Mexico's relative regional stability and energy export benefits from Hormuz tensions

market48%MISS

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USD/MXN will trade above 18.43 by October 16, 2026.

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