The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will weaken above 18.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts and North American energy price volatility create current account pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.354.

Derived from: OPEC+ Production Decision Bayesian equilibrium shows Saudi cuts vs US SPR releases as most likely outcome (mixed, 70% confidence). Knowledge bank shows Saudi production cuts materialize with upward oil pressure. Mexico is net oil exporter but peso weakens on regional volatility. Compound probability: P(oil price volatility from OPEC dynamics) * P(peso weakness | oil volatility) = 0.78 * 0.87 = 0.68

Probability

59%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.