The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will weaken above 18.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts drive energy import costs higher while risk-off positioning pressures emerging market currencies

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 53% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.278.

Derived from: OPEC+ Nash equilibrium shows Saudi cuts against US SPR releases (mixed outcome, 70% confidence). Mexico is net oil importer despite production. Risk-off regime with 80% geopolitical escalation risk pressures EM currencies. Base rate for major FX moves in 30-day window is elevated during regime transitions.

Probability

53%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.