The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will strengthen below 16.80 within 14 days as nearshoring benefits and relative regional stability attract capital flows away from Asian risk

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 56% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.314.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation Nash equilibrium driving supply chain redirection. Mexico benefits from China+1 strategies. Base rate for major FX moves in 14 days is 56%. Compound probability: P(Asia risk-off) * P(MXN strength | risk-off) = 0.75 * 0.77 = 0.58

Probability

56%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 25188d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.