The Mexican Peso will weaken significantly, with USD/MXN trading above 18.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 57% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.325.

Derived from: Risk-off regime transition and elevated geopolitical tensions driving EM currency weakness. Mexico's trade dependency on US creates vulnerability during transitional regime with neutral sentiment (Fear/Greed 50) masking underlying stress. Compound probability: P(risk-off accelerates) * P(MXN weakness vs USD strength) = 0.75 * 0.81 = 0.61

Probability

57%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.