The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as risk-off positioning and potential Trump 2.0 trade policy uncertainty create emerging market currency weakness

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 63% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.401.

Derived from: 80% geopolitical escalation risk with neutral market sentiment creating dangerous divergence. EM currencies typically underperform during risk-off transitions. Compound probability: P(risk-off acceleration) * P(MXN weakness|risk-off) = 0.85 * 0.85 = 0.72

Probability

63%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 25188d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.