The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as USMCA trade tensions and North American supply chain realignment from Asia-Pacific risks create emerging market currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 63% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.401.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation Nash equilibrium driving supply chain redirection. Compound probability: P(Taiwan gray zone continues) * P(USMCA supply chain impact) = 0.70 * 0.85 = 0.60, but adjusted upward for EM currency weakness during risk-off regime with 80% geopolitical escalation risk

Probability

63%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.