The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will weaken past 18.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as dollar safe haven flows and emerging market risk-off positioning outweigh Mexico's oil exporter benefits from potential energy price increases

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 56% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.314.

Derived from: Transitional market regime with 80% geopolitical escalation risk creating EM currency weakness. Bayesian analysis shows 53% escalation probability for Taiwan Strait and 67% for Hormuz, driving safe haven USD demand. Compound probability: P(sustained USD strength) * P(MXN weakness | USD strength) = 0.75 * 0.77 = 0.58

Probability

56%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.