The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as USMCA trade renegotiation uncertainty and safe-haven dollar flows create emerging market currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 51% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.255.

Derived from: US-China Trade War game theory showing Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) creates spillover pressure on Mexico as USMCA member. Base rate for major FX moves 1.5%+ is 56% per week. Compound probability: P(trade tensions persist) * P(MXN weakness | tensions) = 0.75 * 0.56 = 0.42

Probability

51%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 25188d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.