EUR/USD will trade below 1.1120 by November 9, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-10 at 67% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-09.

Derived from: the active risk-off assessment and its elevated geopolitical escalation risk, measured against a EUR/USD reference rate of 1.12.

Probability: 67%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 9in 27d
Made: Oct 10

Price Target$1.112

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EUR/USD will trade below 1.14 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (July meeting, three dissents favoring a hike) sustains dollar strength against the euro amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

market37%MISS

EUR/USD will trade within a tight 1.08–1.12 range on every trading day within 14 days, reflecting the ECB's active reinforcement of euro stability narratives under Lagarde despite the broader wartime risk-off backdrop.

market19%MISS

EUR/USD will trade below 1.0400 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days

market25%

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EUR/USD will trade below 1.1120 by November 9, 2026.

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