HITBrier 0.157

Reuters (wire tier), 'Iran retaliates against US allies after its oil tankers destroyed' (2026-09-08), and Reuters (wire tier) 'Iran and US hit tankers in biggest wave of attacks on shipping since war began' (2026-09-10), both within the evidence window (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20), confirm US strikes destroyed Iranian oil tankers/IRGC-linked shipping infrastructure, prompting Iranian retaliation. This constitutes confirmed past-tense US military action against Iranian IRGC-linked infrastructure within the window.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Geopolitical

The United States will conduct at least one additional airstrike on Iranian IRGC-linked infrastructure or personnel within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 60% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.157.

Iran Nuclear Bayesian assessment shows zero stable equilibria (Fearon bargaining failure, structural conditions favor conflict) combined with Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% and the prior confirmed pattern of US strikes on Iranian targets during the ongoing wartime regime.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 30 days.

geopolitical77%

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (not a cut) for its next monthly allocation within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

geopolitical52%

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The United States will conduct at least one additional airstrike on Iranian IRGC-linked infrastructure or personnel within 14 days.

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