MISSBrier 0.198

Data-resolved: CPER moved from 39.04 to 40.65 (4.12%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: below 37.7. Target not reached. Low was 38.06.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongCPER

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close below $37.70 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.198.

Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, 53% escalation probability) combined with China Property/Stimulus dilemma pressures industrial metals demand expectations; copper often leads broader risk-off equity moves, offering a cross-asset early-warning signal.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$37.7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

CPER (industrial copper ETF) will underperform GLD (gold ETF) by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market30%MISS

CPER will close below $38.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close above $41.50 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market38%

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CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close below $37.70 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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