MISSBrier 0.198

Data-resolved: CPER moved from 39.18 to 40.61 (3.65%) during 2026-09-13 to 2026-09-27. Target: below 38. Target not reached. Low was 38.06.

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongCPER

CPER will close below $38.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-27. Brier score 0.198.

China Property/Stimulus Dilemma Bayesian equilibrium remains fragile (mixed outcome, 70% confidence) with unresolved demand-side stress; a declining copper/gold ratio typically precedes broader equity drawdown consistent with the current SPY/QQQ capitulation-level RSI readings.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Price Target$38

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

CPER (industrial copper ETF) will underperform GLD (gold ETF) by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market30%MISS

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close below $37.70 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%MISS

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close above $41.50 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market38%

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CPER will close below $38.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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