MISSBrier 0.084

Creation (2026-09-06): GLD=406.77, CPER=39.95. End of window (2026-09-18): GLD close=401.17, CPER close=40.23. GLD return=(401.17-406.77)/406.77=-1.377%. CPER return=(40.23-39.95)/39.95=+0.701%. Relative performance = CPER% - GLD% = 0.701-(-1.377)=+2.078% (CPER actually outperformed GLD, opposite of predicted underperformance). Required: CPER underperform GLD by >=6%. Actual is +2.08% outperformance, therefore threshold NOT met and direction incorrect.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongCPER

Copper ETF CPER will underperform GLD by at least 6% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 29% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.084.

Risk-off regime confirmation (Fear & Greed 38, risk_off market regime) combined with sustained gold safe-haven demand from the Iran-nuclear Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) should widen the copper/gold divergence as a leading indicator of demand-side risk aversion.

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close above $41.50 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market38%

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close below $37.70 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%MISS

CPER (industrial copper ETF) will underperform GLD (gold ETF) by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market30%MISS

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Copper ETF CPER will underperform GLD by at least 6% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

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