MISSBrier 0.091

Reference prices at creation September 11: CPER $39.225, GLD $401.00. Comparing each day's closes through September 25, the greatest CPER underperformance was September 14: CPER $38.26, return (38.26/39.225−1)×100 = −2.460%; GLD $392.84, return (392.84/401−1)×100 = −2.035%; CPER minus GLD = −0.425 percentage points. Actual underperformance: 0.425 percentage points; required: 5; 0.425 < 5, therefore threshold NOT met. CPER did underperform GLD on September 14, so direction was correct on that date. September 25 closes: CPER $40.61 and GLD $393.41, showing no qualifying later reversal.

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Market

CPER

CPER (industrial copper ETF) will underperform GLD (gold ETF) by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 30% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-28. Brier score 0.091.

Cross-asset rotation thesis: wartime risk-off conditions and zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure favor safe-haven gold demand over industrially-linked copper, consistent with the broader risk-off regime and weak global growth signals (Taiwan Strait fracture risk, US-China Fearon failure).

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close below $37.70 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%MISS

CPER will close below $38.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close above $41.50 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market38%

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CPER (industrial copper ETF) will underperform GLD (gold ETF) by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

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