China Property/Stimulus Bayesian equilibrium projects targeted property bailout supporting a 'long China recovery' mixed outcome (70% confidence), which should lift industrial metals demand proxies like copper distinct from the broader risk-off equity narrative.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$41.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

Copper ETF CPER will underperform GLD by at least 6% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market29%MISS

CPER (United States Copper Index Fund) will close below $37.70 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%MISS

CPER (industrial copper ETF) will underperform GLD (gold ETF) by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market30%MISS

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CPER will close below $38.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS