QQQ price data from March 5-11, 2026 shows relatively stable trading between $599.75-$608.91. Starting from March 5th close of $608.91, QQQ declined to $599.75 on March 6th but recovered and remained in a tight range through March 11th close of $607.69. This modest price volatility would not generate the sustained selling pressure required to push RSI below 40 within the 7-day window. The prediction claimed RSI would decline from 43.4 to below 40, but the price action suggests RSI likely remained above 40 throughout the prediction period.
Resolved Mar 12, 2026
Market
QQQ RSI will decline below 40 within 7 days as tech sector weakness accelerates in the risk-off environment
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-05 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-12. Brier score 0.336.
Derived from: QQQ RSI currently at 43.4 showing similar weakness to SPY, combined with risk-off regime assessment and bearish technical momentum across major indices
Probability
58%
Timeframe
7 days
Deadline
Mar 12201d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
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IEMG (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF) will close below its March 6 level on at least 6 out of 10 trading days during March 10-21 period