MISSBrier 0.348

Corrected: IEMG closed below March 6 level on approximately 3-4 trading days, not the required 6 out of 10. Actual: ~4 days, Required: 6 days. Threshold not met, direction partially correct but magnitude far short.

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Market

IEMG (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF) will close below its March 6 level on at least 6 out of 10 trading days during March 10-21 period

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-06 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.348.

Derived from: Risk scenario Technical Breakdown Acceleration (25% probability) combined with active thesis risk_off regime and geopolitical escalation risk at 80%

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 21192d ago
Made: Mar 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will underperform SPY by at least 3% during the 30-day period ending April 3

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IEMG (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF) will close below its March 6 level on at least 6 out of 10 trading days during March 10-21 period

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