HITBrier 0.152

WTI crude oil futures traded well above $85/barrel target. Data shows March 13 close at $98.71, significantly exceeding the $85 target within the 7-day prediction window ending March 13. Current price $98.49 on March 19.

Resolved Mar 19, 2026

Market

WTI crude oil futures will trade above $85/barrel within 7 days as OPEC+ production cuts dominate mixed equilibrium dynamics

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-06 at 61% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-19. Brier score 0.152.

Derived from: Game theory analysis OPEC+ Production Decision showing 'Saudi chooses Cut production; US chooses Release SPR' mixed outcome at 70% confidence

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 13200d ago
Made: Mar 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IEMG (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF) will close below its March 6 level on at least 6 out of 10 trading days during March 10-21 period

market59%MISS

EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will underperform SPY by at least 3% during the 30-day period ending April 3

market66%PARTIAL

XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR) will close below its March 5 level on at least 4 trading days during the 7-day period ending March 12

market63%MISS

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WTI crude oil futures will trade above $85/barrel within 7 days as OPEC+ production cuts dominate mixed equilibrium dynamics

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