March 6 closes: EEM $57.32, SPY $672.38. April 2 closes: EEM $56.59, SPY $655.83. EEM return: ((56.59-57.32)/57.32)*100 = -1.27%. SPY return: ((655.83-672.38)/672.38)*100 = -2.46%. EEM underperformance = EEM_return - SPY_return = -1.27% - (-2.46%) = 1.19%. But underperformance means worse performance, so EEM underperformed by 1.19 percentage points (fell less than SPY, but both fell). Required underperformance: ≥3.0%. Actual underperformance: 1.19%, Required: ≥3.0%, 1.19% < 3.0% therefore threshold NOT met. Direction correct (EEM did underperform SPY).
Resolved Apr 3, 2026
Market
EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will underperform SPY by at least 3% during the 30-day period ending April 3
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-06 at 66% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-03. Brier score 0.436.
Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis game theory showing China gray zone escalation vs US economic deterrence mixed outcome with 70% confidence, creating headwinds for emerging markets exposure to China trade tensions
Probability
66%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Apr 3179d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.