MISSBrier 0.397

XLK March 5 close was 140.18. During the 7-day period (Mar 6-12), XLK closed below this level on only 3 trading days: Mar 6 (137.29), Mar 9 (139.76), and Mar 10 (139.76). Mar 11 closed at 140.43, above the reference. Prediction required at least 4 days below 140.18, but only 3 days qualified.

Resolved Mar 12, 2026

Market

XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR) will close below its March 5 level on at least 4 trading days during the 7-day period ending March 12

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-05 at 63% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-12. Brier score 0.397.

Derived from: Risk-off regime assessment combined with QQQ bearish technicals (RSI 43.4) and upcoming Taiwan Strait Tension Window affecting semiconductor sector exposure

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 12201d ago
Made: Mar 5

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

QQQ RSI will decline below 40 within 7 days as tech sector weakness accelerates in the risk-off environment

market58%MISS

EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will underperform SPY by at least 3% during the 30-day period ending April 3

market66%PARTIAL

WTI crude oil futures will trade above $85/barrel within 7 days as OPEC+ production cuts dominate mixed equilibrium dynamics

market61%HIT

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR) will close below its March 5 level on at least 4 trading days during the 7-day period ending March 12

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture