FXI (China large-cap ETF) will close below $33.10 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-20.

Derived from Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: fragile stability, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical, bargaining range narrow (25%). Distinct threshold/timeframe from the already-confirmed FXI<$34 prediction.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 20in 21d
Made: Sep 20

Price Target$33.1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FXI will close below $34.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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FXI will close above $37.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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FXI (China large-cap ETF) will close below $34.90 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

FXI (China large-cap ETF) will close below $33.10 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

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