US-China Trade War Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict favored). Prior confirmed pattern: US FCC/Xinjiang actions triggered Chinese retaliatory drone-export and sanctions measures (confirmed Aug 5). Escalation cycle likely to continue with a rare-earth-specific countermeasure.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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