HITBrier 0.294

Early-confirmed: FXI hit target below 34.9 on 2026-09-09. Current price: 34.55 (started at 35.88).

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Market

SHORT correctFXI

FXI (China large-cap ETF) will close below $34.90 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 46% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.294.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian coalition stability at 30% with critical fracture risk, plus ongoing US-China economic deterrence measures (confirmed FCC export/Xinjiang sanctions and Chinese retaliation) pressure Chinese equities amid the UNGA/October 7 anniversary risk window.

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$34.9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will announce new export restrictions on rare earth minerals or critical materials targeting the US within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

FXI will close above $37.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

FXI will close below $34.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market49%HIT

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FXI (China large-cap ETF) will close below $34.90 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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