HITBrier 0.259

Early-confirmed: FXI hit target below 34 on 2026-09-16. Current price: 34.19 (started at 35.00).

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Market

SHORT correctFXI

FXI will close below $34.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 49% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.259.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows a narrow 25% bargaining range and 53% escalation probability with fragile China-US coalition stability (30%), a distinct catalyst from the China property/stimulus dilemma referenced in earlier FXI-adjacent theses.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$34

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FXI will close above $37.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

China will announce new export restrictions on rare earth minerals or critical materials targeting the US within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

FXI (China large-cap ETF) will close below $34.90 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

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FXI will close below $34.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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