FXI will close below $34.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 49% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.259.
Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows a narrow 25% bargaining range and 53% escalation probability with fragile China-US coalition stability (30%), a distinct catalyst from the China property/stimulus dilemma referenced in earlier FXI-adjacent theses.
- Probability
- 49%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 236d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.