MISSBrier 0.208

Data-resolved: FXI moved from 35.88 to 34.32 (-4.35%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 37. Target not reached. High was 35.16.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongFXI

FXI will close above $37.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 46% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.208.

Bayesian China Property/Stimulus Dilemma equilibrium (targeted property bailout, long China recovery, mixed, 70% confidence) supports upside in Chinese equities distinct from the Taiwan Strait risk overlay.

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$37

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will announce new export restrictions on rare earth minerals or critical materials targeting the US within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

FXI (China large-cap ETF) will close below $34.90 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

FXI will close below $34.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market49%HIT

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FXI will close above $37.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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