PARTIALBrier 0.410

Corrected: XLI underperformed SPY but by ~1.33%, not the required 2%+. Direction correct (XLI did underperform), magnitude insufficient. Actual: ~1.33%, Required: >2.0%.

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Market

XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 21

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 64% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.410.

Derived from: Risk-off regime with SPY RSI at 43.5 and bearish trend structure, combined with Taiwan Strait tension window approaching March 31 which pressures industrial/manufacturing sectors most exposed to Asia supply chain disruption

Probability: 64%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 21192d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SPY will close below 510 on at least 2 trading days during the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence window as Iran Assessment dynamics create market volatility

market74%MISS

XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2.5% within 30 days as risk-off conditions pressure cyclical sectors

market69%PARTIAL

IEFA (iShares Core MSCI EAFE) will decline more than 3% during the 30-day period ending April 6 as international markets underperform in risk-off environment

market71%HIT

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 21

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture